|
Passive Portfolio Management Active Portfolio Management Income, Income, Income Stock, Stock Everywhere China & Commodities Capacity Utilization Monetizing the Debt
Passive Portfolio Management Over the last 8 months we have seen
one of the broadest based declines in the investment markets over the last 100 years. We have seen a broad
number of asset classes decline in value. This market decline has been characterized by a sharp decline
in the value of many mutual funds over the last year. The following funds are down over 40% in 2008.
- Leg Mason Value (55.1%)
- Fidelity Magellan
(49.4%)
- Dodge
& Cox Stock Fund (43.3%)
- Davis NY Venture (40.0%)
- Dodge & Cox International (46.7%)
- Templeton Growth Fund (46.1%)
- Van Kampen Capital
Growth (49.3%)
- T. Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund (42.2%)
- American Funds EuroPacific (40.5%)
This
is to name just a few. The “good” funds were only down 37%! The declines
in many retirement portfolios we have seen were 30-60%, we must ask ourselves why were so many portfolios subject to such
losses? We believe that the returns were the result of relying on passive investment management strategies employed in many
portfolios. Many individuals and investment advisors use a passive investment strategy. At
MaxOut Savings Advisors, we believe that an active investment management style would have prevented many of these losses. Active Portfolio Management
The typical
investment retirement account we see when people come to us from other advisors is a collection of mutual funds that have
not been changed in the last couple of years. What’s worse is that as the financial crisis unfolded,
no changes were made to move the portfolio to a more defensive posture. The result was that many investors
headed into the worst financial crisis in a generation in an overly aggressive portfolio that resulted in large losses.
In an actively managed account, changes would have been made to become more defensive as conditions in the economy
and financial system became more problematic. We believe that your investments should change as the investment
environment changes. This is why we talked about moving your investments into the castle to protect
them from the financial crisis last year.
One must
continue to use adaptive strategies with active portfolio management. Using the active investment management
approach, you should continue to have many of your assets in the castle. In this defensive move we would
be favoring cash, bonds, convertible bonds, preferred stocks, precious metals and high quality multinational companies.
Our castle should be stocked with quality and income. Our outlook is that the Debt Bubble will take
years to work out; therefore, we want quality companies that can survive and prosper in difficult times. If
you are not sure how to manage your 401-k, ask for help; then make changes. If you are not sure what to
do, start out with small changes and see how they work out. Income, Income, Income
Income has been one of our major themes for the 2009 investment outlook. We want income coming
into the account throughout the year. There are three basic types of income we can bring into the account:
dividends, interest, and capital gains. Dividends come in from ownership of stocks. In
today’s markets, it is not too hard to find companies yielding over 4% per year. The primary return
from owning a bond is dividend interest. Yields have fallen but we are still finding great value in the
investment grade corporate bond sector. The final way to bring in income is through capital gains in the
sale of stocks. This income or money flowing into the account philosophy will keep your retirement account
growing even in times of turmoil.
There are several ways to boost
the income in your 401-k or retirement plan if you can only invest in mutual funds. The first of course
is to buy a bond fund. At the present time we like the investment grade corporate bond sector and to a
lesser extent the floating rate loan mutual sector. We also like the foreign bonds sector to profit from
a decline it the dollar. When looking at bond funds we would look to the short and intermediate term given
our inflation concerns. Remember, keep the bonds shorter term.
On the equity side, take a look at a growth and income fund. These funds will give you growth
as well as income, hence the name. A variant of the growth and income funds is a balanced fund that has
both stocks and bonds in it. Another sector that will give you capital gains as well as income is a convertible
bond fund. Convertible bonds are bonds that can be converted to stock as the stock moves higher, but still
pay interest. Stock,
Stock Everywhere The second problem we have found is that many investors or financial advisors were over allocated in the
stock markets. This compares to when I started in the investment business in the 1980s and I had
to work to convince people that stocks were a good investment. Looking at the chart below, we
can see that a 100% stock portfolio (right side of chart) has the highest rewards and the most volatility. To
put it another way this portfolio of 100% stock had the highest risk and went down the most in the crisis. If
we look at the middle of the chart that is closer to a 70% stock/ 30% bond portfolio, we see good returns with a lot less
risk. On the left side we see a portfolio of cash and bonds that have the smallest amount of risk.
In real life, a 100% bond portfolio has more risk than a portfolio of a combination of stocks and bonds and could have
a problem if inflation hits. Do you know the stock to bond weighting of your retirement portfolio? At MaxOut
Savings Advisors, we typically use a 60% stock/ 40% bond portfolio that allows for more balanced risk.

We have
seen some outstanding values in the equities markets over the last couple of months. We expect stocks to continue to generate
very good capital gains and income over time. But always keep in mind the importance of balance in any
investment portfolio.
China & Commodities Over the last couple of months we have talked about China purchasing commodities to diversify
out of the Dollar. In a recent article in the UK Telegraph on April 16, 2009, China is buying commodities
to move out of the US Dollar according to Nobu Su, head of a Taiwan based commodity firm. The article states
that China’s State Reserves Bureau (SRB) has been buying copper and other industrial metals over recent months on a
scale that appears to go beyond the usual rebuilding of stocks for commercial reasons. In stockpiling commodities,
China achieves two goals. First they stabilize the commodity prices and thereby stabilize the economies
around the world. The second result is to diversify out of almost $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.
These reserves were built up over the last decade because of the record trade deficits in the United States. China
has recently expressed concern about the US dollar and bond markets in light of the massive deficit spending programs that
have been enacted in the United States. They need the commodities market because no other currency is as large as the dollar.
We believe that they are also buying gold and we will see gold rise over the next two years as more countries and individuals
step up purchases. We believe that this is bullish for commodities, including oil, as countries try to
inflate their way to prosperity.
Capacity Utilization The recently released numbers
on capacity utilization show an economy that is still slowing. The 70% industrial capacity utilization
number is the lowest since records were kept starting in 1967. The numbers are closer to the numbers seen
in the 1930s. As can be seen from the Federal Reserve chart below, the capacity utilization numbers for the economy are lower
than the Energy Crisis’s of the early 1970s and early 1980s. What makes this slowdown one of the
worst in 100 years is that it is a financial crisis, not a run of the mill economic crisis brought on by an energy shock or
higher interest rates. Even the Tech Bubble collapse was not a banking crisis. The Tech
Bubble was a collapse in tech spending is the economy. Why we are seeing such bad capacity numbers is that
this is a collapse of a Debt Bubble that has frozen lending. As a result, companies are cutting back inventories
and capital spending to reduce debt. The frozen lending is leading to a fall in manufacturing as manufactures
cannot borrow and projects are canceled.

We are now hearing that General Motors will close most of its
factories for nine weeks over the summer. The GM summer shutdown will have further ripple effects as many
parts suppliers will close as well. For this reason, we do not expect to see a rebound in the factory utilization
numbers until the fall at the earliest. There is a strong possibility that General Motors or Chrysler could
declare bankruptcy sometime in June.
Monetizing the
Debt During a typical economic slowdown, the government
borrows more for two reasons. One is to put in place extra spending to stabilize the economy and the other
is because tax receipts naturally fall as the economy slows. As the budget deficit grows, it is financed
by borrowing from investors that are generally happy to buy the government debt because they know that it is safest in a recession.
What makes this time different is that the borrowing is so large. We have seen numbers that the
United States could borrow up to $1.7 trillion in the next 12 months. To support this massive borrowing and keep lending going,
the Federal Reserve is engaged in what is known as quantitative easing, where it buys the US Debt as will. What
the Fed is doing by buying the debt is what is known as monetizing the debt. This is what we saw happening
in many third world countries in South America and Asia in the 1980s and 1990s. At the time, it resulted
in over time inflation in these countries. The United States today with its high budget deficits, large
current account deficits, and low savings rates more resembles these countries. We believe that we will
see a major inflation problem over the next 1-3 years as the US tries to spend and inflate its way out of its problems.
We will continue to see the economy stabilize in the near term, we still have many problems to solve and it will take
time. We do not expect a sustained recovery until 2010. Over time inflation will
assert itself as a problem.
Need Help? Do you already have an account at Fidelity
Investments? Why not let the MaxOut Savings Advisors Team manage the assets for you at Fidelity?
In most cases you can sign a simple form and we can use your same Fidelity account to get you started.
Who is MaxOut Savings Advisors LLC? In these volatile times, investing your retirement funds
can be difficult and time consuming. Hiring the MaxOut Savings Advisors team to manage your money or IRA
rollover is a great first step. MaxOut Savings Advisors is an SEC registered, fee-only investment advisor
based in Houston, Texas. Ted Geoca has over twenty year’s investment experience managing clients’
retirement assets. We invest in stocks, bonds and mutual funds for our clients using a value analysis strategy that we have
developed over the last twenty years. We use Fidelity Investments as the custodian for our clients’
assets. If you would like MaxOut Savings Advisors to manage your retirement investments using our value methodology, I would
be happy to meet with you. To schedule an appointment please give us a call at 713-627-0400 or email me
at ted@maxoutsavings.com.
Remember Save Aggressively and Invest
Conservatively
Ted K Geoca
Doug Saam Kellan
Caldwell President MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC Houston,
Texas ted@maxoutsavings.com
713-627-0400
Remember
to catch: The MaxOut Savings Show
with Ted Geoca on Saturday at 11:00am
on KNTH 1070AM!
The MaxOut
Savings Show and Report does not give out financial advice. Any recommendation
may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although information contained herein is believed to be
reliable, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC may or may not have positions
mentioned herein. MaxOut Savings is a Registered Investment Advisor registered with the SEC. You should always make investment
decisions based on your own financial situation.
To sign up a friend for our free MaxOut Savings Report or to remove
your name off the MaxOut Savings Report list, email ted@maxoutsavings.com.
|