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MaxOut Savings Show Report
With Ted Geoca
Saturday 11:00AM on KNTH 1070AM
MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC
04/23/2009

SAVE AGGRESSIVELY AND INVEST CONSERVATIVELY!!!

Active Portfolio Management

Passive Portfolio Management
Active Portfolio Management
Income, Income, Income
Stock, Stock Everywhere
China & Commodities
Capacity Utilization
Monetizing the Debt

Passive Portfolio Management

Over the last 8 months we have seen one of the broadest based declines in the investment markets over the last 100 years.  We have seen a broad number of asset classes decline in value.  This market decline has been characterized by a sharp decline in the value of many mutual funds over the last year.  The following funds are down over 40% in 2008.

  1. Leg Mason Value (55.1%)
  2. Fidelity Magellan (49.4%)
  3. Dodge & Cox Stock Fund (43.3%)
  4. Davis NY Venture (40.0%)
  5. Dodge & Cox International (46.7%)
  6. Templeton Growth Fund (46.1%)
  7. Van Kampen Capital Growth (49.3%)
  8. T. Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund (42.2%)
  9. American Funds EuroPacific (40.5%)

This is to name just a few.  The “good” funds were only down 37%!  The declines in many retirement portfolios we have seen were 30-60%, we must ask ourselves why were so many portfolios subject to such losses? We believe that the returns were the result of relying on passive investment management strategies employed in many portfolios.  Many individuals and investment advisors use a passive investment strategy.  At MaxOut Savings Advisors, we believe that an active investment management style would have prevented many of these losses.


Active Portfolio Management

The typical investment retirement account we see when people come to us from other advisors is a collection of mutual funds that have not been changed in the last couple of years.  What’s worse is that as the financial crisis unfolded, no changes were made to move the portfolio to a more defensive posture.  The result was that many investors headed into the worst financial crisis in a generation in an overly aggressive portfolio that resulted in large losses.  In an actively managed account, changes would have been made to become more defensive as conditions in the economy and financial system became more problematic.  We believe that your investments should change as the investment environment changes.  This is why we talked about moving your investments into the castle to protect them from the financial crisis last year.

One must continue to use adaptive strategies with active portfolio management.  Using the active investment management approach, you should continue to have many of your assets in the castle.  In this defensive move we would be favoring cash, bonds, convertible bonds, preferred stocks, precious metals and high quality multinational companies.  Our castle should be stocked with quality and income.  Our outlook is that the Debt Bubble will take years to work out; therefore, we want quality companies that can survive and prosper in difficult times.  If you are not sure how to manage your 401-k, ask for help; then make changes.  If you are not sure what to do, start out with small changes and see how they work out.


Income, Income, Income

Income has been one of our major themes for the 2009 investment outlook. We want income coming into the account throughout the year.  There are three basic types of income we can bring into the account: dividends, interest, and capital gains.  Dividends come in from ownership of stocks.  In today’s markets, it is not too hard to find companies yielding over 4% per year.  The primary return from owning a bond is dividend interest.  Yields have fallen but we are still finding great value in the investment grade corporate bond sector.  The final way to bring in income is through capital gains in the sale of stocks.  This income or money flowing into the account philosophy will keep your retirement account growing even in times of turmoil.

There are several ways to boost the income in your 401-k or retirement plan if you can only invest in mutual funds.  The first of course is to buy a bond fund.  At the present time we like the investment grade corporate bond sector and to a lesser extent the floating rate loan mutual sector.  We also like the foreign bonds sector to profit from a decline it the dollar.  When looking at bond funds we would look to the short and intermediate term given our inflation concerns.  Remember, keep the bonds shorter term.

On the equity side, take a look at a growth and income fund.  These funds will give you growth as well as income, hence the name.  A variant of the growth and income funds is a balanced fund that has both stocks and bonds in it.  Another sector that will give you capital gains as well as income is a convertible bond fund.  Convertible bonds are bonds that can be converted to stock as the stock moves higher, but still pay interest.


Stock, Stock Everywhere
The second problem we have found is that many investors or financial advisors were over allocated in the stock markets.   This compares to when I started in the investment business in the 1980s and I had to work to convince people that stocks were a good investment.  Looking at the chart below, we can see that a 100% stock portfolio (right side of chart) has the highest rewards and the most volatility.  To put it another way this portfolio of 100% stock had the highest risk and went down the most in the crisis.  If we look at the middle of the chart that is closer to a 70% stock/ 30% bond portfolio, we see good returns with a lot less risk.  On the left side we see a portfolio of cash and bonds that have the smallest amount of risk.  In real life, a 100% bond portfolio has more risk than a portfolio of a combination of stocks and bonds and could have a problem if inflation hits.  Do you know the stock to bond weighting of your retirement portfolio? At MaxOut Savings Advisors, we typically use a 60% stock/ 40% bond portfolio that allows for more balanced risk.

2009-04-23_Risk_vs._Return.jpg


We have seen some outstanding values in the equities markets over the last couple of months. We expect stocks to continue to generate very good capital gains and income over time.  But always keep in mind the importance of balance in any investment portfolio.

China & Commodities
Over the last couple of months we have talked about China purchasing commodities to diversify out of the Dollar.  In a recent article in the UK Telegraph on April 16, 2009, China is buying commodities to move out of the US Dollar according to Nobu Su, head of a Taiwan based commodity firm.  The article states that China’s State Reserves Bureau (SRB) has been buying copper and other industrial metals over recent months on a scale that appears to go beyond the usual rebuilding of stocks for commercial reasons.  In stockpiling commodities, China achieves two goals.  First they stabilize the commodity prices and thereby stabilize the economies around the world.  The second result is to diversify out of almost $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.  These reserves were built up over the last decade because of the record trade deficits in the United States. China has recently expressed concern about the US dollar and bond markets in light of the massive deficit spending programs that have been enacted in the United States. They need the commodities market because no other currency is as large as the dollar.  We believe that they are also buying gold and we will see gold rise over the next two years as more countries and individuals step up purchases.  We believe that this is bullish for commodities, including oil, as countries try to inflate their way to prosperity.

Capacity Utilization
The recently released numbers on capacity utilization show an economy that is still slowing.  The 70% industrial capacity utilization number is the lowest since records were kept starting in 1967.  The numbers are closer to the numbers seen in the 1930s. As can be seen from the Federal Reserve chart below, the capacity utilization numbers for the economy are lower than the Energy Crisis’s of the early 1970s and early 1980s.  What makes this slowdown one of the worst in 100 years is that it is a financial crisis, not a run of the mill economic crisis brought on by an energy shock or higher interest rates.  Even the Tech Bubble collapse was not a banking crisis.  The Tech Bubble was a collapse in tech spending is the economy.  Why we are seeing such bad capacity numbers is that this is a collapse of a Debt Bubble that has frozen lending.  As a result, companies are cutting back inventories and capital spending to reduce debt.  The frozen lending is leading to a fall in manufacturing as manufactures cannot borrow and projects are canceled. 

2009-04-23_Capacity_Utilization.jpg

We are now hearing that General Motors will close most of its factories for nine weeks over the summer.  The GM summer shutdown will have further ripple effects as many parts suppliers will close as well.  For this reason, we do not expect to see a rebound in the factory utilization numbers until the fall at the earliest.  There is a strong possibility that General Motors or Chrysler could declare bankruptcy sometime in June.

Monetizing the Debt
During a typical economic slowdown, the government borrows more for two reasons.  One is to put in place extra spending to stabilize the economy and the other is because tax receipts naturally fall as the economy slows.  As the budget deficit grows, it is financed by borrowing from investors that are generally happy to buy the government debt because they know that it is safest in a recession.  What makes this time different is that the borrowing is so large.  We have seen numbers that the United States could borrow up to $1.7 trillion in the next 12 months. To support this massive borrowing and keep lending going, the Federal Reserve is engaged in what is known as quantitative easing, where it buys the US Debt as will.  What the Fed is doing by buying the debt is what is known as monetizing the debt.  This is what we saw happening in many third world countries in South America and Asia in the 1980s and 1990s.  At the time, it resulted in over time inflation in these countries.  The United States today with its high budget deficits, large current account deficits, and low savings rates more resembles these countries.  We believe that we will see a major inflation problem over the next 1-3 years as the US tries to spend and inflate its way out of its problems.  We will continue to see the economy stabilize in the near term, we still have many problems to solve and it will take time.   We do not expect a sustained recovery until 2010.  Over time inflation will assert itself as a problem.


Need Help?
Do you already have an account at Fidelity Investments?  Why not let the MaxOut Savings Advisors Team manage the assets for you at Fidelity?  In most cases you can sign a simple form and we can use your same Fidelity account to get you started.

Who is MaxOut Savings Advisors LLC?
In these volatile times, investing your retirement funds can be difficult and time consuming.  Hiring the MaxOut Savings Advisors team to manage your money or IRA rollover is a great first step.  MaxOut Savings Advisors is an SEC registered, fee-only investment advisor based in Houston, Texas.  Ted Geoca has over twenty year’s investment experience managing clients’ retirement assets. We invest in stocks, bonds and mutual funds for our clients using a value analysis strategy that we have developed over the last twenty years.   We use Fidelity Investments as the custodian for our clients’ assets. If you would like MaxOut Savings Advisors to manage your retirement investments using our value methodology, I would be happy to meet with you.  To schedule an appointment please give us a call at 713-627-0400 or email me at ted@maxoutsavings.com.


Remember Save Aggressively and Invest Conservatively

Ted K Geoca                          Doug Saam                 Kellan Caldwell
President
MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC
Houston, Texas
ted@maxoutsavings.com                                   713-627-0400

Remember to catch:
The MaxOut Savings Show with Ted Geoca on Saturday at 11:00am on KNTH 1070AM!

The MaxOut Savings Show and Report does not give out financial advice. 
Any recommendation may not be suitable for all investors.  Moreover, although information contained herein is believed to be reliable, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC may or may not have positions mentioned herein. MaxOut Savings is a Registered Investment Advisor registered with the SEC. You should always make investment decisions based on your own financial situation.

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