MaxOut Savings Advisors

Tax Rates

Home
A Tale of Two Charts
The Wall: China Report
Global Risk
Common 401(k) Mistakes
Handling Sudden Wealth
Previous Broadcasts
Reports Archive
Sign Up for the Report
Request Information
Reading List
Retirement Planning
Who We Are
Contact Us

Click here to view in PDF format

MaxOut Savings Show Report
With Ted Geoca
www.maxoutsavings.com
MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC
10/1/2010

SAVE AGGRESSIVELY AND INVEST CONSERVATIVELY!!!

What are the Tax Rates?

15% Tax Rate
NUA Tax Break
RMD 2010
Flash Crash Fiber Pipe
Mutual Funds vs. Traders
Another Bailout
Cult of Stocks
Investment Outlook
Election Outlook
MaxOut Savings Seminar

Last week I spent a couple of days in Chicago working with Ed Slott at his Elite IRA Advisors program going over the nuances of IRA rollovers, Roth IRAs and conversions.  Ed Slott is the nation’s leading IRA expert.  As an Elite IRA Advisor we are able to work with our clients to ensure their IRA rollover is correctly handled to prevent possible major tax or distribution problems.  We have Ed’s team of experts available to handle any complex problems that should arise with IRAs, Roth IRA or the inheritance of these accounts.  A mistake can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.  If you have a problem or need some help, we will be able to assist you.

15% Low Rates
Normally at this time of year in Ed Slott’s program, we would be going over the changes in the tax laws and how it will affect our clients.  However, we still do not have the tax laws set for 2011 because of Congress’s ineptitude.  We do not even know if we will have an estate tax next year.  This makes our estate planning more difficult than normal.  In addition to the income taxes and estate taxes, we do not know what the capital gains tax and the tax on dividends will be.  At the present time, the tax on capital gains is 15% at the top rate.  We believe that the capital gains tax rate will be going up in 2011.  If you are thinking of selling a long term capital gain investment, all other things being equal, take a look at selling in 2010 at these very low 15% rates.  We believe that an increase in the capital gains rate could depress the stock market near year end.

NUA: Special Tax
Treatment for Company Stock
One of the best, but least known tax breaks available to 401(k) holders at retirement is the net unrealized appreciation stock tax rule, also known as NUA. At retirement, in some cases people need to take a large distribution from the rollover of their 401(k) plan or they may just want their company stock moved out of their retirement plan.  The most efficient way to do that in some cases is to take advantage of the net unrealized appreciation (NUA) tax rules.  The NUA rules allow you to transfer your company’s stock from your 401(k) or company plan into a taxable account and pay only the ordinary income tax on the cost basis of the company stock.  Here is the key: when you eventually sell the company stock, you only pay capital gains tax as opposed to ordinary income tax, which is 15% at the present time.  This strategy works best with highly appreciated company stock.  With the highly appreciated stock, your ordinary income tax portion is low and the appreciated capital gains portion is much higher.  In some cases, the difference could be a 40% ordinary income tax vs. a 15% capital gains tax.

As an example, say an employee of Chevron (CVX) was retiring with a $1,500,000 plan that has $1,000,000 in mutual funds and $500,000 of CVX stock with a $25 per share cost basis.  At retirement, he would rollover the $1,000,000 in mutual funds into an IRA rollover.  He would then transfer the company stock in-kind to his regular taxable account in his name and pay ordinary income taxes on the $25 per share.  No additional taxes are owed until he sells the stock.  The stock would then be out of his plan at retirement.  When he sells the stock at today’s price of $79, the difference of  79 - 25 = $54 would only be taxed at the 15% capital gains tax rate instead of the higher ordinary income rate.  The stock could also be left to grow over the long term at the low long term capital gains tax rate.

The advantage of the plan is that it can reduce taxes, especially for large distributions near retirement.  One of the negatives is that you do not receive a step-up cost basis at death.  Overall, the NUA rules are beneficial when you want to move money out of a 401(k) plan/IRA rollover at retirement.  If you roll your company stock over to an IRA, rollover you lose the NUA special tax treatment.  The stock must come from the company plan.

RMD for 2010
One of the big changes for 2010 is that if you are over 70 ½ or if you have an inherited IRA (also known as a beneficiary IRA) you will be required to take a required minimum distribution for 2010.  This is a big change from 2009 when the RMD requirements were waived.  When calculating the RMD, always use the prior year’s December 31st balance.  For this year, that would be the December 31, 2009 balance.  If you forget to take the RMD the tax is a 50% excess accumulation penalty!  The deadline to make the RMD is December 31st unless you turn 70 ½ that year, in which case you have until April 1st of the following year.

Flash Crash Fiber Pipe
Earlier this year the stock market fell over 1000 points intraday as the result of high frequency trading run amok.  It was the biggest one day drop in history and became known as the “flash crash”.  Not much has changed since then!  In the latest salvo launched by high frequency traders, a $300 million high speed fiber optic cable was secretly constructed between Chicago and New York to shave 3 milliseconds off the time between the Chicago Futures and Trading floors and the New York stock exchange.  When conducting high frequency trading programs, speed is everything.  Three milliseconds will get your order ahead of everyone else’s order.  The people at Jim Barksdale’s Spread Networks are able to charge up to ten times the going rate for fiber optic cables to high frequency traders.  The need for speed is paramount.  This is how the New York Stock Exchange is able to make millions of dollars per year leasing space right next to the NYSE floor to high frequency traders so their orders will get in ahead of individual investors and mutual funds.  That three hundred million would be spent on a special dedicated line gives us an idea of the tremendous amount of money being made by high frequency traders at investors’ expense.

Late Note: Today Hibernia Atlantic announced plans for a new trans-Atlantic ocean cable to connect New York and London for high-speed traders to cut execution time 8%!

Investors
Battle Traders
In a recent Wall Street Journal article it was pointed out that the typical mutual fund order is roughly 185,000 shares and the average US stock exchange trade size is 100 to 300 shares.  This is partially because the stocks now trade in pennies instead of 1/8s, resulting in a narrower bid/ask spread size.  That creates a problem of how to execute 185,000 share orders when the average trade size is 100-300 shares.  This is the problem we face at MaxOut Savings Advisors when we buy or sell stock for our clients.  Executing block trades has been made more difficult by high frequency traders trying to find out who is handling block trading and take advantage of them and their clients. For this reason, institutions will break up orders to disguise the size of the order.  One method is to use computer algorithms to facilitate the trade.  At Fidelity Investments, our custodian partner, we use a number of their algorithm programs to help us execute large block trades.  Some of these programs (VWAP) will trade based on volume and percent of volume to get the best possible price.  The computers are very efficient at buying or selling stock without running the stock price up or down.  Another method is to place the order in what is known as a “dark pool” to see if it will execute or use liquidity seeking algorithms.  In the dark pool, the orders are hidden, anonymous and bigger in size.  All of this is done to prevent the high frequency/speed traders from finding the order and front running it through speed or going to other exchanges.  The high speed traders have become a problem and are costing individual investors’ money in the form of higher trade prices.  Even with the obvious conflict, high frequency traders often account for over 50% of the exchange’s volume and they have been able to fight off rules to prevent unfair advantages.  We believe that high frequency trading programs are giving investors a false sense of liquidity in stock markets that vanishes at the first sign of trouble and, therefore, should be curtailed.

Another Bailout
Over the weekend, the Obama Administration announced another bailout, this time credit unions!   Federal regulators announced a $30 billion bailout of the wholesale credit union system.  A wholesale credit union invests money for local retail credit unions and handles the back office check processing.  Federal rules require the wholesale credit unions to invest in safe, liquid assets only.  Even with that requirement, five of the nation’s twenty-seven credit unions have failed.  The failed firms made risky real estate loans and bought sub-prime mortgages from Wall Street firms.  In theory, the program backed by the National Credit Union Association will not cost taxpayers money because they will issue $30 billion in bonds to be paid back to the nations credit unions in the form of higher assessments.  We shall see; we will have to pay for it in one way or another.  The good news is that most local credit unions are in good shape.

2010-10-01_Monetary_Base.jpg

As the Federal Reserve continues to talk about another round of quantitative easing, also known as QE2, the latest to come out of the Fed is from New York Fed Governor William Dudley who said that the US job growth and inflation outlook was “unacceptable.”  The talk was that we could see another $500 billion in quantitative easing.  We can see how much quantitative easing the Fed has done already in the monetary base chart above.  Looking at the chart below, for all that money, plus an $800 billion stimulus program, we can see it has made little difference when it comes to US unemployment.  This is one of the effects of the liquidity trap we wrote about in our last MaxOut Savings Report.  Even massive monetary injections have little effect on unemployment in a liquidity trap.

2010-10-01_Unemployment_Rate.jpg

We are still faced with a slow growth economy that will take years to recover from the excess leverage in the consumer and financial system.  Recent studies have shown it takes six to seven years to deleverage from a debt bubble.

Death of the Cult of Stocks
Since the 1980s, investors have poured billions of dollars into the equity markets on the blind faith that stocks always go up.  Now after two stock market meltdowns in 2000 and 2008 of 40% or more, and with the S&P 500 returning a negative 1.1% over the last ten years, investors have begun to abandon stocks.  The matter has been made worse by the flash crash and the takeover of Wall Street by high speed traders that have run rampant and are, so far, immune to government regulation.  Over the last year and a half, investors have sold out of over $40 billion in domestic equity funds while pouring over $400 billion into bond funds.  Is now the time to sell your stocks and buy bonds?  At this point, we believe it would be a mistake to eliminate equities from your portfolio.

Investment Outlook
Investing in a slow growth, deflationary environment requires a different set of strategies. The classic buy-and-hold the S&P 500 fund strategy has generated almost no return over the last ten years.  Now is the time for active management.  In a volatile, slow growth environment, an investment account must be actively managed to take advantage of the volatility and invested in companies that are positioned to take advantage of these conditions. We continue to believe that a combination of high quality dividend paying stocks, short term bonds and foreign investments, with a higher than normal level of cash, is the best strategy in these turbulent investment markets.  In a slow growth environment, you want to own companies with low debt and high cash reserves. These companies have the money to grow throughout a crisis.  In addition, you want to be in companies that can grow overseas and profit from the growth in the middle class in Asia, India and Brazil.  Another area to invest in are companies that are in front of the government programs in energy, renewable energy, smart grid and other favored programs.  Over the next couple of years, dividends will play a big role in returns.  If you own a stock paying 4% per year, you only need a 5% increase in the price to get a 9% total return.  In the past, dividends have accounted for over 50% of the total returns of the S&P 500.

We find many people are underweight and looking for fixed income.  This week the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit an all time record low of 4.32%.  Now is not the time to be buying long term bonds at record low yields.   In an environment dominated by deleveraging and a Federal Reserve planning quantitative easing out for the next couple of years, we believe bonds with maturities less than seven years are the best place to be.  Eventually, with run away government spending, we will have inflation and long term bonds will suffer.  As with stocks, quality is king.  We like investment grade bonds in solid companies.  We would continue to avoid junk bonds that have become overpriced.  So far this year the default rate has been 0.5% for junk bonds, near a record low.  Over the long term, it has averaged almost 4%.  In the junk bond market, a lot of problems are being papered over and eventually we will see a material increase in defaults.  Foreign bonds should benefit from a lower dollar and provide another level of diversification.  We continue to want to have higher levels of cash on the sidelines to manage risk in the portfolios.

Brazil’s Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, suggested that countries around the world were engaging in a new international currency war to boost trade.  In the 1930s, countries enacted tariffs on imports, which shut down world trade with disastrous results that deepened the depression.  Now instead of countries putting on tariffs, they are depreciating their currencies to boost trade.  First Japan, and now Brazil, moved to intervene in the currency markets to depreciate their currencies to help exports.  We need to watch how these currency wars play out.  Gold will benefit long term in a currency war.  In addition, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program (QE2) has given the gold bull market new life.  For now, gold and silver should move higher.

Election Outlook
With the Congressional elections coming up in November, the Republicans are expected to make big gains.  We expect the Republicans to win the House and have a better than 50/50 chance to win the Senate.  This should be accomplished by a huge Republican and independent turnout.  This will generate huge wins for the Republicans in national and state races.  As demoralized as the Democrats are, there is a good chance their turnout will be low and Republicans could win the Senate.  Either way, the Republicans should win the House and get control of the all important committee chairmanships.  This will allow them to slowdown the Obama agenda in a big way.  There has been a lot of talk about the big Republican win in Congress and “gridlock” in government that would be good for the markets.  We disagree with this notion in that we have huge problems in the country that need to be solved.  Gridlock could make those problems worse; we need solutions and a centrist President.  If the Administration does not move solidly to the center, it will be very difficult to pass solutions and the resulting gridlock will be negative for the investment markets.  We believe the current stock market rally is already pricing in a big Republican win.

MaxOut Savings Seminar
We are planning a new seminar for the first week of November on investing and our 2011 outlook.  The free seminar will be on a weekday evening and we will be talking about the deleveraging era and how to profit from it!  If you would like to sign up, email me at ted@maxoutsavings.com or give us a call at the office at 713.627.0400.

Ed Slott’s Elite IRA Advisor Group
A large portion of the assets that we manage are brought in through IRA rollovers.  Along those lines, we are a member of Ed Slott’s elite IRA program.  Ed Slott is one of the foremost experts in the country on IRA and IRA rollovers. As an Elite IRA Advisor, we undergo quite a bit of training to understand IRAs and Rollovers and their many nuances.  If you have a technical question about your IRA or IRA rollover, please let me know and I will be happy to help you out.

Retiring soon?  Now is the time to set up an appointment with MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC.  At MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC, we work every day managing investors’ IRA, Rollover, Brokerage, and Trust accounts.  If you need help or would like MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC to manage your accounts, I would be happy to meet with you.  Email us at ted@maxoutsavings.com or call us at 713-627-0400.

Do you have an account at Fidelity?
Do you already have an account at Fidelity Investments?  The MaxOut Savings Advisors Team can actively manage the assets for you at Fidelity.  We will make the investment decisions for you and you can monitor your account from Fidelity’s website.  We use the same value based investment strategies we talk about on the MaxOut Savings Show every weekend.  In most cases, you can sign a simple form to add us as the advisor to your account and we can use your same Fidelity account number.

Considering an IRA Rollover?
If you are retiring soon or considering an IRA rollover, let the MaxOut Savings Advisors Team handle your IRA rollover.  We can help you take advantage of the NUA tax break if you have low cost basis company stock in your plan.  We will sit down with you and go over your financial situation and needs and come up with a plan.  We will show you how we actively manage accounts using our value analysis strategy to grow your investments and reduce risk.

MaxOut Savings Advisors: Actively Managing Risk
In these volatile times, investing your retirement funds can be difficult and time consuming.  Is your advisor looking at risk and actively managing your retirement account?  Hiring the MaxOut Savings Advisors Team to manage your money or IRA rollover is a great first step toward a successful retirement.  MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered, fee-only investment advisor based in Houston, Texas.  Ted Geoca has over twenty year’s of investment experience managing clients’ retirement assets.  We invest in stocks, bonds and mutual funds for our clients using a value analysis strategy that we have developed over the last twenty years.  We look at risk as well as return to actively manage your investments through today’s changing markets.  We use Fidelity Investments as the custodian for our clients’ assets.  If you would like MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC to manage your retirement investments using our value methodology, I would be happy to meet with you.  To schedule an appointment please give us a call at (713) 627-0400 or email me at ted@maxoutsavings.com.

Remember Save Aggressively
and Invest Conservatively!

Ted K Geoca                          Doug Saam                 Kellan Caldwell
President
MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC
Houston, Texas
ted@maxoutsavings.com                                   713-627-0400
www.maxoutsavings.com
Remember to catch:
The MaxOut Savings Show with Ted Geoca on Saturday at 11:00am on KNTH 1070AM!
The MaxOut Savings Show and Report does not give out financial advice.  Any recommendation may not be suitable for all investors.  Moreover, although information contained herein is believed to be reliable, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC may or may not have positions mentioned herein. MaxOut Savings is a Registered Investment Advisor registered with the SEC. You should always make investment decisions based on your own financial situation.

To sign up a friend for our free MaxOut Savings Report or to remove your name off the MaxOut Savings Report list, email ted@maxoutsavings.com.

If you would like to receive this free newsletter by email please send us a message at ted@maxoutsavings.com and we will add you to the mailing list.