15% Tax Rate NUA Tax Break RMD 2010 Flash Crash Fiber Pipe Mutual Funds vs. Traders Another Bailout Cult of Stocks Investment Outlook Election Outlook MaxOut Savings Seminar
Last week I spent a couple of days in Chicago working with Ed Slott at his Elite IRA
Advisors program going over the nuances of IRA rollovers, Roth IRAs and conversions. Ed Slott is the nation’s
leading IRA expert. As an Elite IRA Advisor we are able to work with our clients to ensure their IRA rollover
is correctly handled to prevent possible major tax or distribution problems. We have Ed’s team of
experts available to handle any complex problems that should arise with IRAs, Roth IRA or the inheritance of these accounts.
A mistake can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. If you have a problem or need some help, we
will be able to assist you.
15% Low Rates Normally at this time of year in Ed Slott’s program, we would be going over the
changes in the tax laws and how it will affect our clients. However, we still do not have the tax laws
set for 2011 because of Congress’s ineptitude. We do not even know if we will have an estate tax
next year. This makes our estate planning more difficult than normal. In addition to
the income taxes and estate taxes, we do not know what the capital gains tax and the tax on dividends will be.
At the present time, the tax on capital gains is 15% at the top rate. We believe that the capital
gains tax rate will be going up in 2011. If you are thinking of selling a long term capital gain investment,
all other things being equal, take a look at selling in 2010 at these very low 15% rates. We believe that
an increase in the capital gains rate could depress the stock market near year end.
NUA: Special Tax Treatment for Company Stock One of the best, but least known tax breaks available to 401(k) holders at retirement
is the net unrealized appreciation stock tax rule, also known as NUA. At retirement, in some cases people need to
take a large distribution from the rollover of their 401(k) plan or they may just want their company stock moved out of their
retirement plan. The most efficient way to do that in some cases is to take advantage of the net unrealized
appreciation (NUA) tax rules. The NUA rules allow you to transfer your company’s stock from
your 401(k) or company plan into a taxable account and pay only the ordinary income tax on the cost basis of the
company stock. Here is the key: when you eventually sell the company stock, you only pay capital gains
tax as opposed to ordinary income tax, which is 15% at the present time. This strategy works best with
highly appreciated company stock. With the highly appreciated stock, your ordinary income tax portion is
low and the appreciated capital gains portion is much higher. In some cases, the difference could be a
40% ordinary income tax vs. a 15% capital gains tax.
As an example,
say an employee of Chevron (CVX) was retiring with a $1,500,000 plan that has $1,000,000 in mutual funds and $500,000 of CVX
stock with a $25 per share cost basis. At retirement, he would rollover the $1,000,000 in mutual funds into an IRA rollover.
He would then transfer the company stock in-kind to his regular taxable account in his name and pay ordinary income
taxes on the $25 per share. No additional taxes are owed until he sells the stock. The
stock would then be out of his plan at retirement. When he sells the stock at today’s price of $79,
the difference of 79 - 25 = $54 would only be taxed at the 15% capital gains tax rate instead of the higher
ordinary income rate. The stock could also be left to grow over the long term at the low long term capital
gains tax rate.
The advantage of the plan is that it can reduce taxes,
especially for large distributions near retirement. One of the negatives is that you do not receive a step-up
cost basis at death. Overall, the NUA rules are beneficial when you want to move money out of a 401(k)
plan/IRA rollover at retirement. If you roll your company stock over to an IRA, rollover you lose the NUA
special tax treatment. The stock must come from the company plan.
RMD for 2010 One of the big
changes for 2010 is that if you are over 70 ½ or if you have an inherited IRA (also known as a beneficiary IRA) you
will be required to take a required minimum distribution for 2010. This is a big change from 2009 when
the RMD requirements were waived. When calculating the RMD, always use the prior year’s December
31st balance. For this year, that would be the December 31, 2009 balance. If
you forget to take the RMD the tax is a 50% excess accumulation penalty! The deadline to make the RMD is
December 31st unless you turn 70 ½ that year, in which case you have until April 1st of the following
year.
Flash Crash Fiber Pipe Earlier this year the stock market fell over 1000 points intraday as the result of high frequency
trading run amok. It was the biggest one day drop in history and became known as the “flash crash”.
Not much has changed since then! In the latest salvo launched by high frequency traders, a $300
million high speed fiber optic cable was secretly constructed between Chicago and New York to shave 3 milliseconds off the
time between the Chicago Futures and Trading floors and the New York stock exchange. When conducting high
frequency trading programs, speed is everything. Three milliseconds will get your order ahead of everyone
else’s order. The people at Jim Barksdale’s Spread Networks are able to charge up to ten times
the going rate for fiber optic cables to high frequency traders. The need for speed is paramount.
This is how the New York Stock Exchange is able to make millions of dollars per year leasing space right next to the
NYSE floor to high frequency traders so their orders will get in ahead of individual investors and mutual funds.
That three hundred million would be spent on a special dedicated line gives us an idea of the tremendous amount of
money being made by high frequency traders at investors’ expense.
Late Note: Today Hibernia Atlantic announced plans for a new trans-Atlantic ocean cable to connect New York and London for
high-speed traders to cut execution time 8%!
Investors
Battle Traders In a recent
Wall Street Journal article it was pointed out that the typical mutual fund order is roughly 185,000 shares and the average
US stock exchange trade size is 100 to 300 shares. This is partially because the stocks now trade in pennies
instead of 1/8s, resulting in a narrower bid/ask spread size. That creates a problem of how to execute
185,000 share orders when the average trade size is 100-300 shares. This is the problem we face at MaxOut
Savings Advisors when we buy or sell stock for our clients. Executing block trades has been made more difficult
by high frequency traders trying to find out who is handling block trading and take advantage of them and their clients. For
this reason, institutions will break up orders to disguise the size of the order. One method is to use
computer algorithms to facilitate the trade. At Fidelity Investments, our custodian partner, we use a number
of their algorithm programs to help us execute large block trades. Some of these programs (VWAP) will trade
based on volume and percent of volume to get the best possible price. The computers are very efficient
at buying or selling stock without running the stock price up or down. Another method is to place the order
in what is known as a “dark pool” to see if it will execute or use liquidity seeking algorithms. In
the dark pool, the orders are hidden, anonymous and bigger in size. All of this is done to prevent the
high frequency/speed traders from finding the order and front running it through speed or going to other exchanges.
The high speed traders have become a problem and are costing individual investors’ money in the form of higher
trade prices. Even with the obvious conflict, high frequency traders often account for over 50% of the
exchange’s volume and they have been able to fight off rules to prevent unfair advantages. We believe
that high frequency trading programs are giving investors a false sense of liquidity in stock markets that vanishes at the
first sign of trouble and, therefore, should be curtailed.
Another Bailout Over the
weekend, the Obama Administration announced another bailout, this time credit unions! Federal regulators
announced a $30 billion bailout of the wholesale credit union system. A wholesale credit union invests
money for local retail credit unions and handles the back office check processing. Federal rules require
the wholesale credit unions to invest in safe, liquid assets only. Even with that requirement, five of
the nation’s twenty-seven credit unions have failed. The failed firms made risky real estate loans
and bought sub-prime mortgages from Wall Street firms. In theory, the program backed by the National Credit
Union Association will not cost taxpayers money because they will issue $30 billion in bonds to be paid back to the nations
credit unions in the form of higher assessments. We shall see; we will have to pay for it in one way or
another. The good news is that most local credit unions are in good shape.

As the Federal
Reserve continues to talk about another round of quantitative easing, also known as QE2, the latest to come out of the Fed
is from New York Fed Governor William Dudley who said that the US job growth and inflation outlook was “unacceptable.”
The talk was that we could see another $500 billion in quantitative easing. We can see
how much quantitative easing the Fed has done already in the monetary base chart above. Looking at the
chart below, for all that money, plus an $800 billion stimulus program, we can see it has made little difference when it comes
to US unemployment. This is one of the effects of the liquidity trap we wrote about in our last MaxOut
Savings Report. Even massive monetary injections have little effect on unemployment in a liquidity trap.

We are still
faced with a slow growth economy that will take years to recover from the excess leverage in the consumer and financial system.
Recent studies have shown it takes six to seven years to deleverage from a debt bubble.
Death of the Cult of Stocks Since the 1980s, investors have poured billions of dollars into the equity markets on
the blind faith that stocks always go up. Now after two stock market meltdowns in 2000 and 2008 of 40%
or more, and with the S&P 500 returning a negative 1.1% over the last ten years, investors have begun to abandon stocks.
The matter has been made worse by the flash crash and the takeover of Wall Street by high speed traders that have run
rampant and are, so far, immune to government regulation. Over the last year and a half, investors have
sold out of over $40 billion in domestic equity funds while pouring over $400 billion into bond funds. Is
now the time to sell your stocks and buy bonds? At this point, we believe it would be a mistake to eliminate
equities from your portfolio.
Investment Outlook Investing in a slow
growth, deflationary environment requires a different set of strategies. The classic buy-and-hold the S&P 500 fund strategy
has generated almost no return over the last ten years. Now is the time for active management.
In a volatile, slow growth environment, an investment account must be actively managed to take advantage of the volatility
and invested in companies that are positioned to take advantage of these conditions. We continue to believe that a combination
of high quality dividend paying stocks, short term bonds and foreign investments, with a higher than normal level of cash,
is the best strategy in these turbulent investment markets. In a slow growth environment, you want to own
companies with low debt and high cash reserves. These companies have the money to grow throughout a crisis. In
addition, you want to be in companies that can grow overseas and profit from the growth in the middle class in Asia, India
and Brazil. Another area to invest in are companies that are in front of the government programs in energy,
renewable energy, smart grid and other favored programs. Over the next couple of years, dividends will
play a big role in returns. If you own a stock paying 4% per year, you only need a 5% increase in the price
to get a 9% total return. In the past, dividends have accounted for over 50% of the total returns of the
S&P 500.
We find many people are underweight and looking for fixed
income. This week the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit an all time record low of 4.32%. Now
is not the time to be buying long term bonds at record low yields. In an environment dominated by
deleveraging and a Federal Reserve planning quantitative easing out for the next couple of years, we believe bonds with maturities
less than seven years are the best place to be. Eventually, with run away government spending, we will
have inflation and long term bonds will suffer. As with stocks, quality is king. We
like investment grade bonds in solid companies. We would continue to avoid junk bonds that have become
overpriced. So far this year the default rate has been 0.5% for junk bonds, near a record low.
Over the long term, it has averaged almost 4%. In the junk bond market, a lot of problems are being
papered over and eventually we will see a material increase in defaults. Foreign bonds should benefit from
a lower dollar and provide another level of diversification. We continue to want to have higher levels
of cash on the sidelines to manage risk in the portfolios.
Brazil’s
Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, suggested that countries around the world were engaging in a new international currency war
to boost trade. In the 1930s, countries enacted tariffs on imports, which shut down world trade with disastrous
results that deepened the depression. Now instead of countries putting on tariffs, they are depreciating
their currencies to boost trade. First Japan, and now Brazil, moved to intervene in the currency markets
to depreciate their currencies to help exports. We need to watch how these currency wars play out.
Gold will benefit long term in a currency war. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative
easing program (QE2) has given the gold bull market new life. For now, gold and silver should move higher.
Election Outlook With the Congressional elections coming up in November, the Republicans are expected to make
big gains. We expect the Republicans to win the House and have a better than 50/50 chance to win the Senate.
This should be accomplished by a huge Republican and independent turnout. This will
generate huge wins for the Republicans in national and state races. As demoralized as the Democrats are,
there is a good chance their turnout will be low and Republicans could win the Senate. Either way, the
Republicans should win the House and get control of the all important committee chairmanships. This will
allow them to slowdown the Obama agenda in a big way. There has been a lot of talk about the big Republican
win in Congress and “gridlock” in government that would be good for the markets. We disagree
with this notion in that we have huge problems in the country that need to be solved. Gridlock could make
those problems worse; we need solutions and a centrist President. If the Administration does not move solidly
to the center, it will be very difficult to pass solutions and the resulting gridlock will be negative for the investment
markets. We believe the current stock market rally is already pricing in a big Republican win.
MaxOut Savings Seminar We are planning a new seminar for the first week of November
on investing and our 2011 outlook. The free seminar will be on a weekday evening and we will be talking
about the deleveraging era and how to profit from it! If you would like to sign up, email me at ted@maxoutsavings.com or give us a call at the office at 713.627.0400.
Ed
Slott’s Elite IRA Advisor Group
A large portion of the assets that we manage are brought in through IRA
rollovers. Along those lines, we are a member of Ed Slott’s elite IRA program. Ed
Slott is one of the foremost experts in the country on IRA and IRA rollovers. As an Elite IRA Advisor, we undergo quite a
bit of training to understand IRAs and Rollovers and their many nuances. If you have a technical question
about your IRA or IRA rollover, please let me know and I will be happy to help you out. Retiring soon?
Now is the time to set up an appointment with MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC. At MaxOut Savings Advisors,
LLC, we work every day managing investors’ IRA, Rollover, Brokerage, and Trust accounts. If you need
help or would like MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC to manage your accounts, I would be happy to meet with you. Email
us at ted@maxoutsavings.com or call us at 713-627-0400. Do you have an account at Fidelity? Do you already have
an account at Fidelity Investments? The MaxOut Savings Advisors Team can actively manage the assets for
you at Fidelity. We will make the investment decisions for you and you can monitor your account from Fidelity’s
website. We use the same value based investment strategies we talk about on the MaxOut Savings Show every
weekend. In most cases, you can sign a simple form to add us as the advisor to your account and we can
use your same Fidelity account number.
Considering an IRA Rollover? If you are retiring soon
or considering an IRA rollover, let the MaxOut Savings Advisors Team handle your IRA rollover. We can help
you take advantage of the NUA tax break if you have low cost basis company stock in your plan. We will
sit down with you and go over your financial situation and needs and come up with a plan. We will show
you how we actively manage accounts using our value analysis strategy to grow your investments and reduce risk. MaxOut Savings Advisors: Actively Managing Risk
In these volatile times, investing your retirement
funds can be difficult and time consuming. Is your advisor looking at risk and actively managing your retirement
account? Hiring the MaxOut Savings Advisors Team to manage your money or IRA rollover is a great first
step toward a successful retirement. MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered, fee-only investment
advisor based in Houston, Texas. Ted Geoca has over twenty year’s of investment experience managing
clients’ retirement assets. We invest in stocks, bonds and mutual funds for our clients using a value
analysis strategy that we have developed over the last twenty years. We look at risk as well as
return to actively manage your investments through today’s changing markets. We use Fidelity
Investments as the custodian for our clients’ assets. If you would like MaxOut Savings Advisors,
LLC to manage your retirement investments using our value methodology, I would be happy to meet with you. To
schedule an appointment please give us a call at (713) 627-0400 or email me at ted@maxoutsavings.com. Remember Save Aggressively and Invest Conservatively!
Ted K Geoca
Doug Saam Kellan
Caldwell President MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC Houston, Texas ted@maxoutsavings.com
713-627-0400 www.maxoutsavings.comRemember to catch: The
MaxOut Savings Show with Ted Geoca on Saturday at 11:00am
on KNTH 1070AM! The MaxOut Savings Show and Report does not give out financial advice. Any recommendation may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although information contained
herein is believed to be reliable, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. MaxOut Savings Advisors, LLC may
or may not have positions mentioned herein. MaxOut Savings is a Registered Investment Advisor registered with the SEC. You
should always make investment decisions based on your own financial situation.
To
sign up a friend for our free MaxOut Savings Report or to remove your name off the MaxOut Savings Report list, email
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